SMM Analysis: Cold-Rolled Stainless Steel Imports Recovered in September, Exports Slightly Decreased by 5.86% but Remained at a High Level [SMM Analysis]

Imports: According to SMM statistics, China's stainless steel imports in September 2024 were 125,200 mt, up 17.22% MoM and down 50.68% YoY. In September, the total stainless steel imports from Indonesia (excluding scrap) were 88,500 mt, down 56.3% YoY and up 23.21% MoM. By form, hot-rolled stainless steel from Indonesia decreased by nearly 17,000 mt, while cold-rolled stainless steel saw a significant increase of nearly 22,900 mt, and semi-manufactured products increased by about 10,800 mt. With the resumption of production at Yongwang's cold-rolling plant, the subsequent supply of cold-rolled stainless steel is expected to remain ample, while hot-rolled stainless steel is relatively stable. The inflow of Indonesian stainless steel is expected to remain high in October.

Exports: According to SMM statistics, China's total stainless steel exports in September 2024 were 524,900 mt, down 5.86% MoM from August but still maintaining a high level above 500,000 mt, up 37.65% YoY. By form, the proportions of various forms remained stable, with the overall export volume decreasing. Specifically, coil exports decreased by 3.06% MoM, narrow strip by 18.2% MoM, profile by 12.29% MoM, and pipe by 11.89% MoM. By country, exports to Vietnam and Turkey decreased significantly, with Vietnam down by 14,300 mt (29.7% MoM) and Turkey down by 12,800 mt (27.18% MoM). Exports to India, Japan, Pakistan, and Bangladesh increased to some extent. Overall, the stainless steel export data for September remained positive, with cumulative YoY growth of 29.17%, and the average monthly export volume was nearly 110,000 mt higher YoY. After the summer break in Europe ended in September and overseas steel mills resumed production, the overall demand for Chinese stainless steel decreased. However, in Southeast Asian countries led by India, the end of the summer heat season and the recovery of operating rates in end-use manufacturing sectors stabilized export demand. It is noteworthy that due to the expected increase in anti-dumping measures against Chinese stainless steel in November-December, some exporters may plan to ship their fourth-quarter export volumes in advance in September-October. Therefore, exports in October are expected to slightly decrease but remain high YoY, while a significant decline is expected in November.